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Insights

With decades of experience investing in global equity markets, our portfolio managers develop quarterly Market Outlook and Investment Insights features to provide insight into our thoughts and views and to help our clients navigate the global equity markets. Read our Insights below, or subscribe to have new Insights delivered to your email.

Market Outlook

The Haves and Have Nots

Market Outlook: 2Q 2026

During a quarter which saw the minting of the world’s first trillionaire, it seems fitting to focus attention on the expanding divergence between the Haves and the Have Nots. Whether we want to discuss companies, consumers, countries or industries there will always be Winners and Losers in markets. Sometimes the difference between a winning situation and a losing one can boil down to just a bad break, nothing more than mere chance. At other times, there are powerful forces at work which can serve as a tailwind to one side while representing nothing less than a serious headwind to the other side. The tale of global equities today is very much about a small group of winners which are being chased by a long list of laggards struggling in their wake...

Who is Up to the Challenge of a Geopolitical Reset?

Market Outlook: 1Q 2026

There is a case to be made that the current investment climate is among the most challenging in recent history. After all, more than half of the investors surveyed at the very outset of April 2026 described it as the "toughest" they have ever experienced. The primary difficulty of today’s investment environment boils down to a combustible combination of high inflation, interest rate increases, and questions about the strength of economic growth, so when one tosses in the current period of hyper-intense global geopolitical uncertainty (with two of the world’s three superpowers engaged in military conflicts) it is no wonder that investors feel they are facing unprecedented challenges...

Never Saw it Coming

Market Outlook: 4Q 2025

Global equity markets produced stellar results in 2025. The MSCI ACWI ex-US index gained more than 33% last year. Even more impressive, that nearly doubled the return of the S&P 500 (~18%). Most close followers of global markets are aware that US stocks have consistently bested their foreign counterparts for more than a decade, thus one could argue that such a reversal was overdue. But that claim has been asserted for years without much evidence to support it. So, what does the future hold? Will non-US equities continue to outperform the US stock markets? What are we to expect from stocks in general going forward? Can we expect markets to continue rallying, or are there matters lurking which should concern us? And if so, what are they?...

Have Stock Climbed to the Top of that Wall of Worry?

Market Outlook: 3Q 2025

The legendary investor, Sir John Templeton, is associated with popularizing the idea that stocks climb a Wall of Worry. The idea being that the stock market often rises despite economic uncertainty and sometimes downright negative news. The metaphor is meant to imply that markets are resilient and that fear on the part of some investors does not always cause stocks to go down. Currently, global equity markets are indeed climbing that proverbial Wall of Worry. The MSCI All Country World ex-US index is up 27% year to date through 3rd quarter, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index is up 30% year to date! Stocks in the US are lagging but are still up 12% year to date. In the wake of such stellar returns, investors might be forgiven for wondering just how high this Wall of Worry goes...

Are we Witnessing the End of American Exceptionalism

Market Outlook: 2Q 2025

The Intersection of Finance & Politics

Market Outlook: 1Q 2025

Tariffs, Taxes & Turmoil

Market Outlook: 4Q 2024

Goldilocks versus 3 Bears

Market Outlook: 3Q 2024

Waiting on Rate Cuts... Still

Market Outlook: 2Q 2024

Investment Insights

Our View on Bond Yields

Investment Insights:

September 2026

Bond Yields_edited.jpg

After remaining at or below 4% for more than a decade following the Global Financial Crisis, the 30-year US Treasury bond yield reached a 22-year high of 5.37% in the second week of September. The 10-year Treasury yield also climbed to 4.98%, approaching the 5% threshold. What is pushing bond yields higher? In our view, the increase reflects several factors—some readily apparent and others more complicated. In our view, the current drivers of higher interest rates are unlikely to ease anytime soon. Even if the rate of inflation comes down and rates are lowered at the front end of the curve, there will still be pressure on yields at the long end of the bond market and we expect market volatility to remain elevated in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment...

We See Opportunity in Current Market Divergence

Investment Insights:

July 2026

Global equity markets have remained in an upward trend in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year stocks have rallied since the market decline in 2022. However, this market move has been anything but a straight line up, with the aforementioned gains having been interrupted by sharp reversals caused by geopolitical events and fluctuating oil prices. Although global markets have managed to continue in an upward trajectory, this market rally has been driven by a small set of stocks. The only sector that outperformed in the second quarter was Information Technology. We believe that many companies which have quality characteristics are being left behind. Thus, in our view, the current market condition is well-positioned for a diversified portfolio with focus on quality and valuation...

We See Opportunity in Quality Stocks

Investment Insights:

September 2025

After an extended period of stellar performance, quality stocks have been going through a rough patch since the middle of 2024. MSCI defines quality companies as those with durable business models and sustainable competitive advantages. By this definition, these companies tend to have high ROEs, stable earnings through a business cycle as well as strong balance sheets with low financial leverage. The underperformance of quality stocks has persisted for the first time in almost a decade. And the magnitude of the underperformance has been more pronounced in international developed and emerging markets than in US equities. We believe that the current underperformance of quality stocks presents an attractive entry point in international developed markets and in emerging markets as well...

Is This the Beginning of a MEGA Trend?

Investment Insights:

March 2025

After more than a decade of dominance, the US equity market has had a softer start this year. International equities are up in the first quarter while US equities have lagged. Meanwhile, European equity markets as defined by the MSCI developed markets European index, have been pulling ahead with countries like Germany and Spain rising by more than 15%, thus placing these markets among the best performers year-to-date in 2025. The marked divergence in performance thus far this year has resulted in European markets catching up with the US on a rolling one-year basis. This begs the question of whether European equities can continue to outperform. We are inclined to believe that European outperformance can be sustained this time around, and that we might just be at the beginning of a longer-term reversal which will result in European markets maintaining their lead over the US for some time...

China Needs to Rethink their Growth Playbook

Investment Insights: October 2024

Will Small Caps Continue to Underperform? We Think not.

Investment Insights: June 2024

Creating Value from "Corporate Value-Up"

Investment Insights: March 2024

When Cash is Not King

Investment Insights: November 2023

Market Breadth in International Equities

Investment Insights: July 2023

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