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Insights

With decades of experience investing in global equity markets, our portfolio managers develop quarterly Market Outlook and Investment Insights features to provide insight into our thoughts and views and to help our clients navigate the global equity markets. Read our Insights below, or subscribe to have new Insights delivered to your email.

Market Outlook

Waiting on Rate Cuts... Still

Market Outlook: 2Q 2024

Interest rates have moved higher and stock market investors as well as their bond buying brethren are anxiously awaiting a wave of global policy rate cuts to put a firmer foundation under the global rally. That wait might go on for a while because current financial conditions are looser than most market participants believe. Yes, government bond yields, and the policy rates which inform them, are higher than they were a couple of years ago before central banks the world over began a campaign of rate hikes the likes of which had not been seen for decades. Their purpose was to force the inflation genie back into the bottle. While inflation no longer rages like an inferno, neither are the policymakers rushing to plaster “Mission Accomplished” signs all over the place...

The Everything Rally Extends into Extra Innings

Market Outlook: 1Q 2024

2023 was a year that defied expectations. First, the most anticipated recession in the history of the world never happened and then stocks went on a massive runup. Well, apparently the ride is not over yet because aside from ushering in the beginning of the 145th Major League Baseball season, the end of the first quarter also witnessed a continuation of what has come to be called the “Everything Rally.” Much of the credit for the global stock market rally should go to the world’s central banks. Primary among them would be the United States Federal Reserve Bank...

2023: It's Been a Wild Ride, Where to From Here?

Market Outlook: 4Q 2023

One year ago, market participants were anticipating a recession. Inflation had reared its ugly head after several decades of dormancy and caused the world’s most important Central Bank (the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank) to raise policy rates dramatically. Higher rates had driven down stock prices the world over in anticipation of the economic slowdown they were meant to bring about. In the end, not only did the recession not materialize but stocks reversed course from 2022 and rallied, spectacularly! But how? Why?...

2023: Interest Rates Return to Rule the World

Market Outlook: 3Q 2023

The gray-haired among us will remember a time long ago, foreign to many if not most of today’s market participants: a time when interest rates mattered. That time may well have returned and prudent investors in today’s markets would be well served to pay much closer attention to what is going on in bond markets in order to appreciate where global equity markets are likely headed...

This Is What a Soft Landing Looks Like, People

Market Outlook: 2Q 2023

Volatility Rears its Head... Again!

Market Outlook: 1Q 2023

And the Winner is...

Market Outlook: 4Q 2022

Picking Fights with the Fed

Market Outlook: 3Q 2022

Tug of War

Market Outlook: 2Q 2022

Investment Insights

Will Small Caps Continue to Underperform? We Think not.

Investment Insights:

June 2024

The risk versus reward on small capitalization stocks has historically been attractive relative to their large capitalization counterparts. Small cap stocks have tended to outperform large caps over the long-term relative to the risk thus driving their premium. Often times, the premium on small caps has been justified due to their higher growth as well as the opportunity they represent to find hidden gems that could be a potential target for a merger or an acquisition. Furthermore, market inefficiencies and a lack of information make the small cap universe a fertile hunting ground for investing. We think that small cap stocks could start to outperform again. Read why...

Creating Value from "Corporate Value-Up"

Investment Insights:

March 2024

The reforms taken by the Japanese government, discussed in our November 2023 issue, seem to be working as the Japanese equity market has decoupled from the other international markets in the last year, besting most of the markets outside of the United States. The outperformance of Japanese equities has not gone unnoticed. South Korea’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) just announced a similar plan to the one in Japan called “Corporate Value-up Program”. In this report, we analyze some of the underlying idiosyncrasies of the Korean market and conclude that the Value-Up Program will take time to be impactful.

When Cash is Not King

Investment Insights: November 2023

Historical data show that global equity market leadership tends to run in long cycles with new winners and losers every decade. The Emerging Markets outperformed in the 2000’s while the last decade was dominated by US equities. One only has to go back to the 1980’s to find a period when Japanese equities led global markets. Since then, the Japanese equity market has languished. Over the last year, however, Japanese equities have started to work again. This begs the question: will the rally persist, and can Japan be the “must own” asset class of the next decade?

Market Breadth in International Equities

Investment Insights:

July 2023

There has been much focus on the recent weak market breadth in US equities driven primarily by mega-caps stocks. There are several ways to calculate market breadth, but the objective is the same and that is to understand whether there is broad participation in the underlying index movement. If an index is rising and most of the underlying stocks are also up, then this indicates a broad healthy market condition...

Is Active Investing Making a Comeback?

Investment Insights: April 2023

Why Intl Equities Could Outperform

Investment Insights: January 2023

Changing Dynamics in Emerging Mkts

Investment Insights: October 2022

Have Buybacks Peaked?

Investment Insights: April 2022

Can Emerging Mkts Make a Comeback?

Investment Insights: January 2022

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